Wisconsin 2026 Election Analysis

Overview

• The model projects Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning a Republican-held legislature into a Democratic one.
• State Senate: Democrats favored at 84.7% vs. Republicans at 14.7%; State Assembly: Democrats at 87.7% vs. Republicans at 12.0%.
• Statewide offices lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most seats and picking up one from Republicans.
• Governor (David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany): Lean D, 76% Democratic win probability, projected margin D+8.1.
• Attorney General (Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney): Likely D, 93% win probability; Secretary of State (JoCasta Zamarripa): Likely D, 84%.
• State Treasurer (Yee Leng Xiong vs. John Leiber): Lean D, 73% — currently a Republican-held seat the model projects Democrats to flip.
• The model gives Democrats a 53.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans just 1.2%; a split outcome is at 45.0%.
• Structural inputs favor the out-party: presidential approval at 38% for a Republican president in a midterm year, consumer sentiment at 46.3, and GDP growth at 2.2%.

Path to control

Governor's Office

The model gives David Crowley a 76% chance of holding this Democratic-held seat, projecting a D+8.1 margin — rated Lean D. Tom Tiffany has a 24% shot.

• Democrats hold the governorship if Crowley wins a competitive but favorable environment.
• Republicans need to overcome the model's structural lean toward Democrats, which is driven by a presidential approval rating of 38% for the Republican president and a consumer sentiment reading of 46.3 — both inputs the model treats as headwinds for the GOP.

State Senate

• Majority threshold: 17 of 33 seats
• Holdover seats: Democrats hold 10, Republicans hold 6 — neither is up this cycle
• Seats contested: 17
• Projected outcome: Democrats 17, Republicans 16
• Control probabilities: Democrats 84.7%, Republicans 14.7%, no majority 0.5%

Democratic path to majority: Democrats enter with 10 holdovers and need 7 more from the 17 contested seats. The model projects them to reach exactly 17. Their rated-safe and likely seats cover most of the gap. Key contested pickups include:

• SD-17 (Lean D, 62%): Jenna Jacobson vs. Howard Marklein — currently Republican-held; a projected Democratic flip
• SD-31 (Lean D, 76%): Jeff Smith vs. Michele Magadance Skinner — currently Democratic-held; the model expects Democrats to hold this seat

Democrats must also navigate two pure toss-ups, both currently Republican-held:

• SD-21 (Toss-up, 48%): Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft — R+0.9 projected margin, essentially a coin flip
• SD-25 (Toss-up, 44%): Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson — R+3.0 projected margin

Republican path to majority: Republicans hold 6 holdovers and would need 11 of the 17 contested seats. The model projects them to win only 16 total. To retake the majority, Republicans must:

• Hold their Lean R seat: SD-29 (Gillian Battino vs. Cory Tomczyk, 77% Republican)
• Sweep both toss-ups (SD-21 and SD-25)
• Defeat Democrats in at least one or more Lean D seat (SD-17 or SD-31)

State Assembly

• Majority threshold: 50 of 99 seats (all 99 up this cycle)
• Projected outcome: Democrats 53, Republicans 46
• Control probabilities: Democrats 87.7%, Republicans 12.0%, no majority 0.3%
• Current composition: Democrats 45, Republicans 54 — the model projects a Democratic flip of chamber control

Democratic path to majority: The model projects Democrats gain enough seats to cross 50. Their 19 Safe D + 18 Likely D + 13 Lean D seats form the core. Five toss-ups are all currently Republican-held:

• AD-82 (Toss-up, 47%): Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes — R+1.7 projected margin
• AD-30 (Toss-up, 53%): Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman — D+2.1 projected margin
• AD-92 (Toss-up, 56%): Jeremiah Fredrickson vs. Clint Moses — D+3.9 projected margin
• AD-85 (Toss-up, 57%): John Kroll vs. Patrick Snyder — D+4.1 projected margin
• AD-22 (Toss-up, 41%): Dana Glasstein vs. Paul Melotik — R+5.5 projected margin

Democrats must hold their Lean D seats and win at least a portion of these toss-ups to reach 50. The model's projection of 53 seats implies Democrats are expected to win most of them.

Republican path to majority: Republicans must hold all 17 Lean R + 20 Likely R + 7 Safe R rated seats and sweep all five toss-ups — while also flipping at least some Democratic-leaning districts. The model gives this path only a 12.0% chance.

U.S. House (WI Delegation)

• Majority threshold: 5 of 8 seats (for delegation control)
• Projected outcome: Democrats 3, Republicans 5
• Control probabilities: Republicans 41.8%, Democrats 23.3%, no majority 34.9%
• Current composition: Democrats 2, Republicans 6

The delegation has no toss-ups. The closest race is the only Democratic pickup opportunity the model identifies:

• WI-03 (Lean D, 63%): Rebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden — D+5.2 projected margin, currently Republican-held

Democratic path to 5 seats: Democrats would need to hold WI-03 and flip four additional currently Republican seats. The model gives no other seat better than Lean R for Democrats, making a delegation majority very unlikely — hence the 23.3% probability.

Republican path to 5 seats: Republicans are already projected at 5. They must hold their Lean R seats:

• WI-01 (Lean R, 64%): Bryan Steil vs. Mitchell Berman
• WI-05 (Lean R, 74%): Scott Fitzgerald vs. Andrew Beck
• WI-08 (Lean R, 80%): Tony Wied vs. Rick Crosson

Trifecta

A Democratic trifecta — winning the Governor's office, State Senate, and State Assembly — carries a 53.8% probability. A Republican trifecta is given just 1.2%. A split outcome is projected at 45.0%.

• Democrats need Crowley to hold the governorship and to convert their strong chamber-control probabilities (84.7% Senate, 87.7% Assembly) into actual majorities — primarily by holding Lean D seats in both chambers and winning enough toss-ups to clear the majority thresholds.
• Republicans face a very steep climb: they would need to overcome the structural midterm headwinds the model identifies (low presidential approval, weak consumer sentiment) and sweep virtually every competitive race across all three contests simultaneously — an outcome the model rates as nearly prohibitive at 1.2%.

Race spotlights

State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft

The model rates this race a Toss-up, projecting a Republican margin of just R+0.9 points — the closest contest anywhere on the ballot. Republicans currently hold the seat, but the model gives Jim Croft only a 52% chance of retention, with Trevor Jung right behind at 48%. In a cycle where the model's structural inputs — a presidential approval of 38% for the party in the White House and a consumer sentiment reading of 46.3 — weigh against the president's party, even a Republican-held seat with a thin geographic advantage becomes genuinely competitive.

State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes

At Toss-up, this is the second-closest race overall, with the model projecting a R+1.7 margin and giving Bryson Reyes a 53% win probability to Enrique Camacho's 47%. Republicans currently hold the seat, making any Democratic gain here a pickup. The razor-thin margin reflects the broader midterm headwinds the model assigns to the president's party under the current structural environment.

State Assembly District 30 — Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman

This Republican-held seat flips to a slight Democratic lean in the model, which projects a D+2.1 margin and gives Kevin Knoke a 53% chance of winning — rated Toss-up. Shannon Zimmerman retains a meaningful 47% shot, keeping this firmly in either-party-could-win territory. The model treats this as one of the assembly seats most likely to change hands given the midterm environment weighing on the incumbent president's party.

State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson

The model rates this Toss-up with a R+3 projected margin, giving Erik Severson a 56% win probability and Charly Ray 44%. Republicans currently hold the seat, and the model sees Severson as the modest favorite — but the low consumer sentiment (46.3) and weak presidential approval (38%) for the Republican president mean the structural environment keeps this well within reach for Democrats. Along with District 21, this is one of two Senate toss-ups whose outcomes could determine chamber control.

State Senate District 17 — Jenna Jacobson vs. Howard Marklein

Rated Lean D, this Republican-held seat is the most pivotal race just outside the toss-up tier, with the model projecting a D+5.8 margin and giving Jenna Jacobson a 62% chance of flipping it. Howard Marklein holds a 39% win probability, keeping this competitive. A Jacobson win would be a Democratic pickup from a currently Republican seat, and the model's midterm dynamics — with the president's party facing structural disadvantage — help explain why an incumbent-party-held seat rates as a Democratic lean.

Where the Model Differs

• U.S. House District 5 — Andrew Beck vs. Scott Fitzgerald: The model rates this Lean R (Democrat 26% win probability), while the benchmark — 4 expert ratings (consensus) — rates it Safe R. The model arrives at a less decisive edge for Fitzgerald because its structural inputs, including a presidential approval of just 38% and consumer sentiment of 46.3 in a midterm year where the president's party is disadvantaged, introduce enough uncertainty to pull the race back from the "Safe" threshold.

• U.S. House District 8 — Rick Crosson vs. Tony Wied: Similarly, the model rates this Lean R (Democrat 20% win probability) against a 4 expert ratings (consensus) benchmark of Safe R. The same midterm structural environment — weak approval, depressed consumer sentiment, and GDP growth of 2.2% — leads the model to assign a non-trivial tail probability to a Democratic upset rather than treating the seat as out of reach.

Weekly digest

Wisconsin's 2026 elections are shaping up as a strong — but not certain — Democratic cycle, with the model projecting the party to flip both legislative chambers while holding every statewide office it currently controls.

The Top of the Ticket

The Governor's race is the most competitive statewide contest. David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany with a projected margin of D+8.1, but the model rates it only Lean D with a 76% Democratic win probability — a real race, not a foregone conclusion.

The other three statewide offices look more comfortable for Democrats:

• Attorney General — Josh Kaul is heavily favored over Eric Toney at 93% with a projected D+16.4 margin (Likely D)
• Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa leads Jay Schroeder at 84%, projected D+11.3 (Likely D)
• State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong holds a 73% edge over John Leiber at D+6.7 (Lean D), notably a seat the model shows currently held by Republicans

The Legislature

Both chambers are projected to flip to Democratic control — a major potential shift.

State Senate (17 seats up this cycle):

• Democrats are projected to go from 15 to 17 seats, exactly at the majority threshold
• Democratic control probability: 84.7% | Republican: 14.7%

State Assembly (all 99 seats up):

• Democrats are projected to jump from 45 to 53 seats, flipping the chamber
• Democratic control probability: 87.7% | Republican: 12.0%

With the Governor's race also leaning Democratic, the model puts the Democratic trifecta probability at 54% — a better-than-even shot but far from guaranteed. A Republican trifecta is just 1.2%; a split outcome sits at 45%.

Races to Watch

These are the four closest contests across all chambers:

• State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung vs. Jim Croft: pure Toss-up, R+0.9, essentially a coin flip (48% D / 52% R)
• State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho vs. Bryson Reyes: Toss-up, R+1.7 (47% D / 53% R)
• State Assembly District 30 — Kevin Knoke vs. Shannon Zimmerman: Toss-up, D+2.1 (53% D / 47% R)
• State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray vs. Erik Severson: Toss-up, R+3.0 (44% D / 56% R)

The Bottom Line

With a 38% presidential approval rating for the incumbent Republican president, low consumer sentiment (46.3), and classic midterm headwinds for the president's party, the model's structural environment strongly favors Democrats — but the tightest legislative races remain genuine toss-ups that could decide who controls Madison.