WisPredict — 2026 Wisconsin Election Forecast
Live 2026 Wisconsin election forecasts for Governor, statewide offices, the State Senate, State Assembly, and U.S. House. Race-by-race win probabilities, projected balance of power, and analysis.
Overall outlook
- The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning Wisconsin's legislative map blue.
- Democrats are favored to control the State Senate at 87.1% vs. 12.9% for Republicans, and the State Assembly at 87.2% vs. 12.8% for Republicans.
- Statewide races lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most offices and picking up one currently Republican-held seat.
- Governor (Francesca Hong): 80% win probability, +7.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
- Attorney General (Josh Kaul): 95% win probability, +15.5 margin — Safe D (currently D).
- Secretary of State (Collin McNamara): 85% win probability, +9.9 margin — Likely D (currently D).
- State Treasurer (Dylan Helmenstine): 71% win probability, +5.3 margin — Lean D (currently Republican-held).
- The model gives Democrats a 58.3% chance of a full trifecta, Republicans just 0.5%, and a split-control outcome 41.2%.
- Structural inputs tilt the environment toward the out-party: presidential approval at 41% (Republican president), consumer sentiment at 49.5, GDP growth at 2.1%, and a midterm-year dynamic that historically disadvantages the party in power.
Statewide races (2026)
- Governor — Francesca Hong (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R). Democratic win probability: 79.6% (Republican 20.4%).
- Attorney General — Josh Kaul (D) vs. Eric Toney (R). Democratic win probability: 94.7% (Republican 5.3%).
- Secretary of State — Collin McNamara (D) vs. Brayden Myer (R). Democratic win probability: 84.9% (Republican 15.1%).
- State Treasurer — Dylan Helmenstine (D) vs. John Leiber (R). Democratic win probability: 70.9% (Republican 29.1%).
Legislative & congressional outlook
- State Senate: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 7 of 17 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 10.
- State Assembly: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 53 of 99 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 46.
- U.S. House: Democrats favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 3 of 8 seats up for election; Republicans favored in 5.
Latest news
- Traveling around Wisconsin with Anne Sayers - WTMJ (WTMJ)
- Wisconsin Lottery Powerball, Pick 3 results for July 11, 2026 - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
- Darryl Morin on a surge of ICE and CPB arrests in Wisconsin - PBS Wisconsin (PBS Wisconsin)
- Vance and Milwaukee mayor swap remarks on election oversight - PBS Wisconsin (PBS Wisconsin)
- First Wisconsin Tar Spot Case Confirmed for 2026 - Successful Farming (Successful Farming)
- Wisconsin Assembly District 8 election: Meet the candidates - WUWM (WUWM)