WisPredict — 2026 Wisconsin Election Forecast
Live 2026 Wisconsin election forecasts for Governor, statewide offices, the State Senate, State Assembly, and U.S. House. Race-by-race win probabilities, projected balance of power, and analysis.
Overall outlook
- The model projects Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning a Republican-held legislature into a Democratic one.
- State Senate: Democrats favored at 84.7% vs. Republicans at 14.7%; State Assembly: Democrats at 87.7% vs. Republicans at 12.0%.
- Statewide offices lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most seats and picking up one from Republicans.
- Governor (David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany): Lean D, 76% Democratic win probability, projected margin D+8.1.
- Attorney General (Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney): Likely D, 93% win probability; Secretary of State (JoCasta Zamarripa): Likely D, 84%.
- State Treasurer (Yee Leng Xiong vs. John Leiber): Lean D, 73% — currently a Republican-held seat the model projects Democrats to flip.
- The model gives Democrats a 53.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans just 1.2%; a split outcome is at 45.0%.
- Structural inputs favor the out-party: presidential approval at 38% for a Republican president in a midterm year, consumer sentiment at 46.3, and GDP growth at 2.2%.
Statewide races (2026)
- Governor — David Crowley (Democratic) vs. Tom Tiffany (Republican). Win probability: D 76.4%, R 23.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 54.0%, R 46.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
- Attorney General — Josh Kaul (Democratic) vs. Eric Toney (Republican). Win probability: D 92.8%, R 7.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.2%, R 41.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
- Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (Democratic) vs. Jay Schroeder (Republican). Win probability: D 84.4%, R 15.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.7%, R 44.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
- State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (Democratic) vs. John Leiber (Republican). Win probability: D 72.5%, R 27.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.4%, R 46.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
Legislative & congressional outlook
- State Senate: Democrats predicted in 7; Republicans in 10; Other candidates in 0 of 17 seats up for election.
- State Assembly: Democrats predicted in 53; Republicans in 46; Other candidates in 0 of 99 seats up for election.
- U.S. House: Democrats predicted in 3; Republicans in 5; Other candidates in 0 of 8 seats up for election.
Latest news
- Francesca Hong Returns to Campaign to Support Democrats in Wisconsin - Nacionale News (Nacionale News)
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- Everything you need to know about voting in Wisconsin’s November election - Wisconsin Watch (Wisconsin Watch)
- 2026 midterms: Why Francesca Hong is still on the campaign trail in Wisconsin - Vox (Vox)
- Senate veteran Tester tours western Wisconsin with House candidate Cooke - WIZM 92.3FM 106.7FM 1410AM (WIZM 92.3FM 106.7FM 1410AM)
- Wisconsin Democrats, Republicans center the economy in 2026 - PBS Wisconsin (PBS Wisconsin)