Wisconsin 2026 State Senate Forecast

Race-by-race State Senate forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats predicted in 7; Republicans in 10; Other candidates in 0 of 17 seats up for election.

Current composition

Democrats 15 · Republicans 18.

Races

State Senate District 1 — Mark Becker (Independent) vs. Nic Cravillion (Republican). Win probability: D 0.0%, R 98.5%, Other 1.5%; Projected vote share: D 0.0%, R 71.8%, Other 28.2%; Rating: Safe R.
State Senate District 3 — Tim Carpenter (Democratic) (unopposed).
State Senate District 5 — Robyn Vining (Democratic) vs. Mike Roberts (Republican). Win probability: D 79.7%, R 20.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.3%, R 41.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Senate District 7 — Chris Larson (Democratic) vs. Mike Moeller (Republican). Win probability: D 99.7%, R 0.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 77.9%, R 22.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Senate District 9 — Christian Ellis (Independent) vs. Amy Binsfeld (Republican). Win probability: D 0.0%, R 97.0%, Other 3.0%; Projected vote share: D 0.0%, R 68.9%, Other 31.1%; Rating: Safe R.
State Senate District 11 — Adam Duda (Democratic) vs. Ellen Schutt (Republican). Win probability: D 15.2%, R 84.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 39.7%, R 60.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Senate District 13 — Sasha Ripley (Democratic) vs. John Jagler (Republican). Win probability: D 8.5%, R 91.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 36.3%, R 63.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Senate District 15 — Mark Spreitzer (Democratic) vs. Scott Fleming (Republican). Win probability: D 99.7%, R 0.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 77.3%, R 22.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Senate District 17 — Jenna Jacobson (Democratic) vs. Howard Marklein (Republican). Win probability: D 61.5%, R 38.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 52.9%, R 47.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Senate District 19 — Emily Tseffos (Democratic) vs. Rachael Cabral-Guevara (Republican). Win probability: D 16.3%, R 83.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 40.2%, R 59.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung (Democratic) vs. Jim Croft (Republican). Win probability: D 48.3%, R 51.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 49.6%, R 50.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Senate District 23 — Jeff Foster (Democratic) vs. Romaine Quinn (Republican). Win probability: D 6.3%, R 93.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 34.7%, R 65.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray (Democratic) vs. Erik Severson (Republican). Win probability: D 44.1%, R 55.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 48.5%, R 51.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Senate District 27 — Dianne Hesselbein (Democratic) (unopposed).
State Senate District 29 — Gillian Battino (Democratic) vs. Cory Tomczyk (Republican). Win probability: D 23.5%, R 76.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.8%, R 57.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Senate District 31 — Jeff Smith (Democratic) vs. Michele Magadance Skinner (Republican). Win probability: D 75.7%, R 24.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 57.0%, R 43.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Senate District 33 — Mike Van Someren (Democratic) vs. Chris Kapenga (Republican). Win probability: D 2.5%, R 97.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 30.5%, R 69.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe R.