Wisconsin 2026 State Senate Forecast
Race-by-race State Senate forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats are favored (win probability ≥ 50%) in 7 of 17 seats up for election; Republicans in 10.
Current composition
Democrats 15 · Republicans 18.
Races
- State Senate District 1 — Sean Grorich (D) vs. André Jacque (R). Democratic win probability: 14.5% (Republican 85.5%).
- State Senate District 3 — Tim Carpenter (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Senate District 5 — Robyn Vining (D) vs. Mike Roberts (R). Democratic win probability: 78.6% (Republican 21.4%).
- State Senate District 7 — Chris Larson (D) vs. Red Arnold (R). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Senate District 9 — Amy Binsfeld (R). Democratic win probability: 34.4% (Republican 65.6%).
- State Senate District 11 — Ellen Schutt (R). Democratic win probability: 12.7% (Republican 87.3%).
- State Senate District 13 — Sasha Ripley (D) vs. John Jagler (R). Democratic win probability: 4.7% (Republican 95.3%).
- State Senate District 15 — Mark Spreitzer (D). Democratic win probability: 99.9% (Republican 0.1%).
- State Senate District 17 — Corrine Hendrickson (D) vs. Howard Marklein (R). Democratic win probability: 55.7% (Republican 44.3%).
- State Senate District 19 — Emily Tseffos (D) vs. Rachael Cabral-Guevara (R). Democratic win probability: 11.1% (Republican 88.9%).
- State Senate District 21 — Trevor Jung (D). Democratic win probability: 45.6% (Republican 54.4%).
- State Senate District 23 — Richard Pulcher (D) vs. Romaine Quinn (R). Democratic win probability: 3.3% (Republican 96.7%).
- State Senate District 25 — Charly Ray (D) vs. Angie Sapik (R). Democratic win probability: 45.1% (Republican 54.9%).
- State Senate District 27 — Dianne Hesselbein (D). Democratic win probability: 100.0% (Republican 0.0%).
- State Senate District 29 — Gillian Battino (D) vs. Cory Tomczyk (R). Democratic win probability: 17.9% (Republican 82.1%).
- State Senate District 31 — Jeff Smith (D) vs. Jesse James (R). Democratic win probability: 77.8% (Republican 22.2%).
- State Senate District 33 — Mike Van Someren (D) vs. Chris Kapenga (R). Democratic win probability: 1.0% (Republican 99.0%).