Wisconsin 2026 State Assembly Forecast

Race-by-race State Assembly forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats predicted in 53; Republicans in 46; Other candidates in 0 of 99 seats up for election.

Current composition

Democrats 45 · Republicans 54.

Races

State Assembly District 1 — Renee Paplham (Democratic) vs. Joel Kitchens (Republican). Win probability: D 28.9%, R 71.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 43.3%, R 56.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 2 — Alicia Saunders (Democratic) vs. Shae Sortwell (Republican). Win probability: D 25.4%, R 74.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.0%, R 58.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 3 — Ron Tusler (Republican). Win probability: D 22.0%, R 78.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 40.7%, R 59.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 4 — Alexia Unertl (Democratic) vs. David Steffen (Republican). Win probability: D 18.0%, R 82.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 39.0%, R 61.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 5 — Justin Schumacher (Democratic) vs. Joy Goeben (Republican). Win probability: D 26.4%, R 73.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.4%, R 57.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 6 — Shirley Hinze (Democratic) vs. Elijah Behnke (Republican). Win probability: D 15.5%, R 84.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.8%, R 62.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 7 — Karen Kirsch (Democratic) vs. Lee Whiting (Republican). Win probability: D 91.2%, R 8.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 66.2%, R 33.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 8 — Ismael Luna (Democratic) vs. Angel Sanchez (Republican). Win probability: D 99.4%, R 0.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 80.5%, R 19.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 9 — Priscilla Prado (Democratic) vs. Samuel Guerrero (Republican). Win probability: D 99.0%, R 1.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 77.9%, R 22.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 10 — Darrin Madison Jr. (Democratic) vs. Robert Longwell-Grice (Wisconsin Green). Win probability: D 99.9%, R 0.0%, Other 0.1%; Projected vote share: D 95.0%, R 0.0%, Other 5.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 11 — Sequanna Taylor (Democratic) vs. Shandowlyon Hendricks Reaves (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 12 — Russell Goodwin (Democratic) (unopposed).
State Assembly District 13 — Amy Zimmerman (Democratic) vs. Mike Morgan (Republican). Win probability: D 87.3%, R 12.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 63.7%, R 36.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 14 — Angelito Tenorio (Democratic) vs. AmyRose Murphy (Republican). Win probability: D 84.7%, R 15.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 62.3%, R 37.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 15 — Stephen Tryon (Democratic) vs. Adam Neylon (Republican). Win probability: D 37.4%, R 62.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 46.1%, R 53.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 16 — Kalan Haywood (Democratic) vs. Alciro Deacon (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 17 — Supreme Moore Omokunde (Democratic) vs. Charlene Abughrin (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 18 — Margaret Arney (Democratic) vs. Joel Richmond (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 19 — Ryan Clancy (Democratic) vs. Yasmine Outlaw (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 20 — Christine Sinicki (Democratic) vs. Kyle Cleary (Republican). Win probability: D 94.0%, R 6.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 68.6%, R 31.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 21 — Daniel Bukiewicz (Democratic) vs. Dylan Pfaffenbach (Republican). Win probability: D 67.5%, R 32.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.4%, R 44.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 22 — Dana Glasstein (Democratic) vs. Paul Melotik (Republican). Win probability: D 40.9%, R 59.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 47.2%, R 52.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Assembly District 23 — Deb Andraca (Democratic) vs. Aleaner Pabonnie (Republican). Win probability: D 95.4%, R 4.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 70.2%, R 29.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 24 — Matt Brown (Democratic) vs. Dan Knodl (Republican). Win probability: D 34.6%, R 65.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 45.2%, R 54.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 25 — Christopher Able (Democratic) vs. Paul Tittl (Republican). Win probability: D 29.5%, R 70.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 43.5%, R 56.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 26 — Joe Sheehan (Democratic) vs. John Belanger (Republican). Win probability: D 76.1%, R 23.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.5%, R 41.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 27 — Lindee Brill (Republican) (unopposed).
State Assembly District 28 — Robin Lillesve (Democratic) vs. Robin Kreibich (Republican). Win probability: D 18.0%, R 82.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 39.0%, R 61.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 29 — Chris Danou (Democratic) vs. Treig Pronschinske (Republican). Win probability: D 21.0%, R 79.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 40.3%, R 59.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 30 — Kevin Knoke (Democratic) vs. Shannon Zimmerman (Republican). Win probability: D 53.4%, R 46.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 51.0%, R 49.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Assembly District 31 — John Perryman (Democratic) vs. Tyler August (Republican). Win probability: D 24.8%, R 75.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 41.8%, R 58.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 32 — Greg Miller (Democratic) vs. Amanda Nedweski (Republican). Win probability: D 14.4%, R 85.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.2%, R 62.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 33 — Maria Bisabarros (Democratic) vs. Steve Wicklund (Republican). Win probability: D 20.7%, R 79.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 40.2%, R 59.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 34 — Merlin Van Buren (Democratic) vs. Rob Swearingen (Republican). Win probability: D 23.0%, R 77.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 41.1%, R 58.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 35 — Elizabeth McCrank (Democratic) vs. Calvin Callahan (Republican). Win probability: D 15.0%, R 85.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.5%, R 62.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 36 — Shena Chapman (Independent) vs. Jeffrey Mursau (Republican). Win probability: D 0.0%, R 99.5%, Other 0.5%; Projected vote share: D 0.0%, R 80.8%, Other 19.2%; Rating: Safe R.
State Assembly District 37 — LaToya Bates (Democratic) vs. Mark Born (Republican). Win probability: D 13.3%, R 86.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 36.6%, R 63.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 38 — Terri Wenkman (Democratic) vs. William Penterman (Republican). Win probability: D 15.7%, R 84.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.9%, R 62.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 39 — Michael Skivington (Democratic) vs. Alex Dallman (Republican). Win probability: D 11.6%, R 88.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 35.6%, R 64.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 40 — Karen DeSanto (Democratic) vs. Julie Helmer (Republican). Win probability: D 83.3%, R 16.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 61.6%, R 38.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 41 — Zach Commons (Democratic) vs. Tony Kurtz (Republican). Win probability: D 25.6%, R 74.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.1%, R 57.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 42 — Maureen McCarville (Democratic) vs. Keith Miller (Republican). Win probability: D 85.3%, R 14.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 62.6%, R 37.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 43 — Brienne Brown (Democratic) vs. Paul McGraw (Republican). Win probability: D 76.9%, R 23.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.8%, R 41.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 44 — Ann Roe (Democratic) vs. Ron Woodman (Republican). Win probability: D 87.8%, R 12.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 64.0%, R 36.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 45 — Clinton Anderson (Democratic) vs. Jocelyn Jordan (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 46 — Joan Fitzgerald (Democratic) vs. John Donohue (Republican). Win probability: D 79.8%, R 20.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.0%, R 40.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 47 — Randy Udell (Democratic) vs. Sandy Bakk (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 48 — Andrew Hysell (Democratic) vs. Mark Kjorlie (Republican). Win probability: D 98.1%, R 1.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 74.9%, R 25.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 49 — John Rindy (Democratic) vs. Travis Tranel (Republican). Win probability: D 25.9%, R 74.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.2%, R 57.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 50 — Bill Oemichen (Democratic) vs. Jon Aleckson (Republican). Win probability: D 86.3%, R 13.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 63.1%, R 36.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 51 — Ben Gruber (Democratic) vs. Todd Novak (Republican). Win probability: D 61.6%, R 38.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.5%, R 46.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 52 — Lee Snodgrass (Democratic) vs. Reive Pullen (Republican). Win probability: D 89.1%, R 10.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 64.8%, R 35.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 53 — Becky Nichols (Democratic) vs. David Daniels (Republican). Win probability: D 68.5%, R 31.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.8%, R 44.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 54 — Lori Palmeri (Democratic) vs. Tim Paterson (Republican). Win probability: D 80.3%, R 19.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.2%, R 39.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 55 — Alex Corrigan (Democratic) vs. Nate Gustafson (Republican). Win probability: D 33.4%, R 66.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 44.8%, R 55.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 56 — Grace Abitz (Democratic) vs. Anthony Phillips (Republican). Win probability: D 24.4%, R 75.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 41.7%, R 58.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 57 — Joey Marschall (Democratic) vs. Kevin Krentz (Republican). Win probability: D 15.2%, R 84.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.7%, R 62.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 58 — Dennis Degenhardt (Democratic) vs. Bernie Newman (Republican). Win probability: D 10.7%, R 89.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 35.1%, R 64.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 59 — Jack Holzman (Democratic) vs. Bradley Petersen (Republican). Win probability: D 5.3%, R 94.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 30.6%, R 69.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 60 — Tiffany Brault (Independent) vs. Marty Ryan (Republican). Win probability: D 0.0%, R 94.1%, Other 5.9%; Projected vote share: D 0.0%, R 68.7%, Other 31.3%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 61 — Ben Brist (Democratic) vs. Robert Donovan (Republican). Win probability: D 61.9%, R 38.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.6%, R 46.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 62 — Angelina Cruz (Democratic) vs. Mike Bellagio (Republican). Win probability: D 91.7%, R 8.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 66.6%, R 33.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 63 — Eddie Phanichkul (Democratic) vs. Robert Wittke (Republican). Win probability: D 4.3%, R 95.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 29.3%, R 70.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe R.
State Assembly District 64 — Tip McGuire (Democratic) vs. Ed Hibsch (Republican). Win probability: D 86.4%, R 13.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 63.2%, R 36.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 65 — Ben DeSmidt (Democratic) vs. Valerie Kretchmer (Republican). Win probability: D 81.8%, R 18.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.9%, R 39.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 66 — Greta Neubauer (Democratic) vs. Gina Cefalu Paulick (Republican). Win probability: D 83.1%, R 16.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 61.5%, R 38.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 67 — Indiana Thompson (Democratic) vs. David Armstrong (Republican). Win probability: D 15.1%, R 84.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 37.6%, R 62.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 68 — Elisha King (Democratic) vs. Rob Summerfield (Republican). Win probability: D 7.2%, R 92.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 32.4%, R 67.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 69 — Roger Halls (Democratic) vs. Karen Hurd (Republican). Win probability: D 5.2%, R 94.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 30.4%, R 69.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 70 — Stephanie Stuve-Bodeen (Democratic) vs. Nancy VanderMeer (Republican). Win probability: D 17.0%, R 83.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 38.5%, R 61.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 71 — Vinnie Miresse (Democratic) vs. Jeff Disher (Republican). Win probability: D 81.4%, R 18.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.7%, R 39.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 72 — Christine Maltese (Democratic) vs. Scott Krug (Republican). Win probability: D 23.5%, R 76.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 41.3%, R 58.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 73 — Angela Stroud (Democratic) vs. Frank Kostka (Republican). Win probability: D 90.8%, R 9.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 65.9%, R 34.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 74 — Paul Johnson (Democratic) vs. Chanz Green (Republican). Win probability: D 27.3%, R 72.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.7%, R 57.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
State Assembly District 75 — Keith Mogel (Democratic) vs. Duke Tucker (Republican). Win probability: D 17.0%, R 83.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 38.5%, R 61.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 76 — Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford (Democratic) vs. Nina Chat (Republican). Win probability: D 99.5%, R 0.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 80.9%, R 19.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 77 — Renuka Mayadev (Democratic) vs. Jane McCormick (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 78 — Shelia Stubbs (Democratic) vs. Henry Johnson (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 79 — Lisa Subeck (Democratic) vs. John Fons (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 80 — Mike Bare (Democratic) vs. Simran Arora (Republican). Win probability: D 99.5%, R 0.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.0%, R 19.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 81 — Alex Joers (Democratic) vs. Mark Maier (Republican). Win probability: D 99.6%, R 0.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 81.6%, R 18.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
State Assembly District 82 — Enrique Camacho (Democratic) vs. Bryson Reyes (Republican). Win probability: D 47.3%, R 52.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 49.2%, R 50.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Assembly District 83 — Dave Maxey (Republican) (unopposed).
State Assembly District 84 — Chuck Wichgers (Republican) (unopposed).
State Assembly District 85 — John Kroll (Democratic) vs. Patrick Snyder (Republican). Win probability: D 56.7%, R 43.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 52.0%, R 48.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Assembly District 86 — Andy Wuethrich (Democratic) vs. John Spiros (Republican). Win probability: D 16.6%, R 83.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 38.3%, R 61.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 87 — Bob Look (Democratic) vs. Brent Jacobson (Republican). Win probability: D 18.5%, R 81.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 39.2%, R 60.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 88 — Brandy Tollefson (Democratic) vs. Ben Franklin (Republican). Win probability: D 66.0%, R 34.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 54.9%, R 45.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 89 — Ryan Spaude (Democratic) vs. Bobby Lindsey (Republican). Win probability: D 77.1%, R 22.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.9%, R 41.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 90 — Amaad Rivera-Wagner (Democratic) vs. Jessica Henderson (Republican). Win probability: D 80.0%, R 20.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.1%, R 39.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 91 — Jodi Emerson (Democratic) vs. Bruce Stabenow (Republican). Win probability: D 77.6%, R 22.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 59.1%, R 40.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 92 — Jeremiah Fredrickson (Democratic) vs. Clint Moses (Republican). Win probability: D 56.4%, R 43.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 51.9%, R 48.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Toss-up.
State Assembly District 93 — Christian Phelps (Democratic) vs. Michael Ayala (Republican). Win probability: D 80.5%, R 19.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 60.3%, R 39.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Assembly District 94 — Steve Doyle (Democratic) vs. Keith Purnell (Republican). Win probability: D 74.2%, R 25.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 57.8%, R 42.2%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 95 — Jill Billings (Democratic) vs. Cedric Schnitzler (Republican). Win probability: D 78.6%, R 21.4%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 59.5%, R 40.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 96 — Tara Johnson (Democratic) vs. Jim Green (Republican). Win probability: D 76.1%, R 23.9%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.5%, R 41.5%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
State Assembly District 97 — Cindi Duchow (Republican) (unopposed).
State Assembly District 98 — Matt Philibert (Democratic) vs. Jim Piwowarczyk (Republican). Win probability: D 9.3%, R 90.7%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 34.1%, R 65.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
State Assembly District 99 — Barbara Dittrich (Republican) (unopposed).