Wisconsin 2026 Statewide Races
Forecasts for Wisconsin's statewide offices on the 2026 ballot, with model win probabilities for each party.
Races
- Governor — David Crowley (D) vs. Tom Tiffany (R). Democratic win probability: 77.0% (Republican 23.0%).
- Attorney General — Josh Kaul (D) vs. Eric Toney (R). Democratic win probability: 94.9% (Republican 5.1%).
- Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (D) vs. Nathan Pollnow (R). Democratic win probability: 89.3% (Republican 10.7%).
- State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (D) vs. John Leiber (R). Democratic win probability: 70.6% (Republican 29.4%).
Analysis
- The model's single biggest takeaway is a projected Democratic flip of both the State Senate and State Assembly, with Democrats favored to gain majorities in each chamber.
- Democrats hold an 81.0% chance of controlling the State Senate and an 82.3% chance of controlling the State Assembly; Republicans retain an 84.7% edge in the WI U.S. House delegation.
- The statewide picture leans Democratic across all four offices on the ballot.
- Governor (77%, Likely D): David Crowley is favored; this is a Democratic-held seat.
- Attorney General (95%, Safe D): Josh Kaul is strongly favored in a Democratic-held seat.
- Secretary of State (89%, Likely D): JoCasta Zamarripa holds a solid edge in a Democratic-held seat.
- State Treasurer (71%, Lean D): Yee Leng Xiong has a modest edge in a seat currently held by Republicans.
- The trifecta outlook is split: Democrats have a 48.3% chance, Republicans just 1.2%, with a 50.5% probability of divided government.
- Structural inputs drive a favorable environment for Democrats: presidential approval is 40% with a Republican in the White House, consumer sentiment is 51, GDP growth is 1.5%, and 2026 is a midterm year — all factors the model treats as headwinds for the president's party.