Wisconsin 2026 Statewide Races

Forecasts for Wisconsin's statewide offices on the 2026 ballot, with model win probabilities for each party.

Races

Governor — David Crowley (Democratic) vs. Tom Tiffany (Republican). Win probability: D 76.4%, R 23.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 54.0%, R 46.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
Attorney General — Josh Kaul (Democratic) vs. Eric Toney (Republican). Win probability: D 92.8%, R 7.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 58.2%, R 41.8%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
Secretary of State — JoCasta Zamarripa (Democratic) vs. Jay Schroeder (Republican). Win probability: D 84.4%, R 15.6%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 55.7%, R 44.3%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely D.
State Treasurer — Yee Leng Xiong (Democratic) vs. John Leiber (Republican). Win probability: D 72.5%, R 27.5%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 53.4%, R 46.6%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.

The model projects Democrats flipping both the State Senate and State Assembly, turning a Republican-held legislature into a Democratic one.

State Senate: Democrats favored at 84.7% vs. Republicans at 14.7%; State Assembly: Democrats at 87.7% vs. Republicans at 12.0%.

Statewide offices lean Democratic across the board, with Democrats defending most seats and picking up one from Republicans.

Governor (David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany): Lean D, 76% Democratic win probability, projected margin D+8.1.
Attorney General (Josh Kaul vs. Eric Toney): Likely D, 93% win probability; Secretary of State (JoCasta Zamarripa): Likely D, 84%.
State Treasurer (Yee Leng Xiong vs. John Leiber): Lean D, 73% — currently a Republican-held seat the model projects Democrats to flip.

The model gives Democrats a 53.8% chance at a full trifecta; Republicans just 1.2%; a split outcome is at 45.0%.
Structural inputs favor the out-party: presidential approval at 38% for a Republican president in a midterm year, consumer sentiment at 46.3, and GDP growth at 2.2%.