Wisconsin 2026 U.S. House Forecast

Race-by-race U.S. House forecasts for 2026, with model win probabilities for each party. Democrats predicted in 3; Republicans in 5; Other candidates in 0 of 8 seats up for election.

Current composition

Democrats 2 · Republicans 6.

Races

U.S. House District 1 — Mitchell Berman (Democratic) vs. Bryan Steil (Republican). Win probability: D 35.9%, R 64.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 47.1%, R 52.9%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
U.S. House District 2 — Mark Pocan (Democratic) (unopposed).
U.S. House District 3 — Rebecca Cooke (Democratic) vs. Derrick Van Orden (Republican). Win probability: D 62.7%, R 37.3%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 52.6%, R 47.4%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean D.
U.S. House District 4 — Gwen Moore (Democratic) vs. Tim Rogers (Republican). Win probability: D 100.0%, R 0.0%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 82.9%, R 17.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Safe D.
U.S. House District 5 — Andrew Beck (Democratic) vs. Scott Fitzgerald (Republican). Win probability: D 26.2%, R 73.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 44.9%, R 55.1%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.
U.S. House District 6 — Brad Smith (Democratic) vs. Glenn Grothman (Republican). Win probability: D 15.9%, R 84.1%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.0%, R 58.0%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
U.S. House District 7 — Fred Clark (Democratic) vs. Michael Alfonso (Republican). Win probability: D 16.8%, R 83.2%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 42.3%, R 57.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Likely R.
U.S. House District 8 — Rick Crosson (Democratic) vs. Tony Wied (Republican). Win probability: D 20.2%, R 79.8%, Other 0.0%; Projected vote share: D 43.3%, R 56.7%, Other 0.0%; Rating: Lean R.